A ordem de parada em Dunquerque: uma análise da influência dos vieses cognitivos na decisão de Hitler

Abstract

This dissertation examines Adolf Hitler’s decision to halt the German Army’s advance against the Allied forces encircled at Dunkirk in May 1940, seeking to determine whether the possible motivations attributed to this order were influenced by cognitive biases. The research adopts the “theory versus reality” method, confronting key concepts from Decision Theory—which addresses the cognitive and psychological limitations of human rationality—with documentary and bibliographic evidence on the episode. The analysis is grounded in four central concepts: Decision Theory, Systems 1 and 2, heuristics, and cognitive biases. Historical literature identifies four possible motivations for the halt order: preserving the Panzer divisions for the offensive toward Paris, avoiding risks associated with the marshy terrain of Flanders, relying on the Luftwaffe to complete the aerial encirclement, and sparing the British Expeditionary Force as a potential diplomatic asset. Each of these motivations was examined through the lens of theoretical concepts, revealing that different biases may have shaped Hitler’s judgment. The findings indicate that, across all motivations assessed, such cognitive deviations were present to varying degrees, undermining rational evaluation and favoring decisions influenced by impressions, memories, and subjective expectations. The study shows that the interaction between Systems 1 and 2, as defined in Decision Theory, points to a decision-making process in which intuitive thinking prevailed over deliberate analysis, leading to conclusions shaped by mental shortcuts and distortions, even in a context of strategic relevance. Thus, Hitler’s decision—often examined solely through political and military lenses—may also be understood as the result of cognitive processes that affected his perception of risks and opportunities. By integrating Decision Theory into a historical analysis, this research contributes to a broader understanding of the factors that shape strategic decisions in wartime scenarios, offering a complementary perspective to the academic debate on the halt order at Dunkirk.