Distribuição territorial das PPP de saneamento básico no Brasil (2024): relação com indicadores socioambientais e implicações para a segurança nacional

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the relationship between the territorial distribution of investments in Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) for basic sanitation in Brazil and municipal socio-environmental indicators, analyzing the implications for national security. The research is based on the hypothesis that the allocation of these resources is unequal, concentrating in municipalities with a higher Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI) and pre-existing infrastructure, which exacerbates inequalities and weakens national security. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining quantitative Pearson correlation analysis with qualitative research. An analysis was conducted on 100% of the PPP sanitation contracts signed in 2024, the values of which were correlated with the MHDI, the Gini Index, and sewage coverage. The qualitative approach included case studies and an interview with a specialist in Public Policy and Governmental Management. The results confirmed the hypothesis, revealing a moderate positive correlation with the MHDI (r = 0.3321) and with sewage coverage (r = 0.4025), and a weak correlation with the Gini Index (r = -0.0203). Such findings indicate that investments prioritize more developed areas, raising questions about the effectiveness of PPP in promoting equity. The research discusses how this inequality in access to sanitation generates social instability and vulnerability to disasters, threatening national security. It is concluded that, to reverse this situation, the allocation of investments in PPP must be guided by robust criteria of environmental justice and national security, prioritizing vulnerable areas to ensure the universalization of access to these essential services.