Ameaças híbridas no século 21: impactos no sistema financeiro brasileiro

Abstract

This research investigates how the Brazilian financial system can be targeted by so-called hybrid threats of the 21st Century and proposes the application of PESTLE analysis as a tool for identifying risks. The research considers that the financial system should not be viewed solely as a set of technical mechanisms and instruments of economic regulation, but as a critical infrastructure that can be attacked by cyber, informational, or economic means. In this sense, central banks, national currencies, and monetary policies become vulnerable to operations aimed at destabilizing public trust and state sovereignty. The paper integrates PESTLE analysis into the Market Intelligence cycle, enabling the mapping of political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental variables that indicate potential threats to the financial system. This makes it possible to anticipate risk situations and support strategic decisions. The results show that the lack of an integrated national vision hinders a coordinated institutional response. The study demonstrates that, although cyberattacks, currency manipulations, and disinformation campaigns can occur in isolation, these actions can also exploit systemic and organizational vulnerabilities, acting in a synergistic, integrated, ambiguous, and synchronized manner within the context of 21st Century Hybrid Warfare.