A projeção de poder de China e Rússia na África ocidental: análise comparativa das estratégias e seus reflexos geopolíticos para o Brasil

Abstract

This study provides a comparative analysis of China’s and Russia’s influence in West Africa, focusing on the cases of Nigeria and Ghana, and their implications for the Brazilian Strategic Surroundings (EEB). The region, strategic to Brazil due to its geopolitical relevance, natural resources, and connection with the South Atlantic, has increasingly attracted the attention of extra-regional powers. Using a qualitative and comparative approach, the research is based on documentary and bibliographic analysis covering the period from 2000 to 2024. China’s presence is characterized by large-scale investments in infrastructure, energy, mining, and trade, complemented by Soft Power instruments. Russia’s engagement prioritizes military cooperation, mining, and energy, associated with Sharp Power initiatives. In Nigeria, China focuses on oil, gas, transport, and telecommunications, while Russia invests in defense, natural gas, and aluminum. In Ghana, China diversifies its involvement, including ports, railways, agriculture, and mining, whereas Russia maintains historical ties and operates in bauxite, education, and technical cooperation. Although both adopt the principle of non-interference and seek to expand their influence, China follows a predominantly economic logic, while Russia’s approach is more geopolitical and security-oriented, with both creating asymmetric dependencies. For Brazil, this intensification poses challenges to maritime security, Atlantic integration, and ZOPACAS, but also offers opportunities for cooperation. It is concluded that Nigeria and Ghana adopt pragmatic stances, leveraging benefits while facing dilemmas such as debt, environmental risks, trade asymmetries, and governance challenges, which demand greater Brazilian diplomatic proactivity in the South Atlantic.