A guerra das Malvinas: estruturas, rivalidades e oportunismo: interações sistêmicas, ocidentais e bilaterais (1945–1982)

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes the causes and dynamics that led to the outbreak of the Falklands War in 1982, articulating three levels of analysis: the international context under the bipolar order of the Cold War, the internal dynamics of the Western Bloc, and the bilateral relations between Argentina and the United Kingdom. To this end, it draws on the theories of Kenneth Waltz’s Structural Realism, Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye’s Complex Interdependence, and John Mearsheimer’s Offensive Realism in order to understand the constraints, incentives, and perceptions that shaped the foreign policies of the actors involved. The research adopts a qualitative, historical, and documentary approach. It concludes that the conflict cannot be interpreted in isolation or solely through a bilateral lens but rather as a result of the interaction between structural factors, rivalries within the Western Bloc, and opportunistic bilateral calculations. The dissertation also highlights that, even within a seemingly stabilized system like the Cold War, spaces for dispute and competition persisted, allowing local conflicts to acquire strategic dimensions. Finally, it suggests further research on security in the South Atlantic, with particular attention to contemporary disputes over insular sovereignty and Brazil’s role in this context.