Negação da assimetria entre forças navais: algumas reflexões do Mar Negro para o Poder Naval brasileiro

Abstract

On February 24th, 2022, Ukraine was invaded by troops of the Russian Federation starting the biggest war in Europe since World War II. The Ukrainian War began during a period of temporal compression between technological advancements. In this context and war, a paradox emerged in the military field: advances defined the situation in the Black Sea while had a marginal impact on the land scenario, characterized by the paralysis and attrition typical of World War I. It was precisely the maritime/naval aspect of the conflict that drew our attention due to the opportunity to evaluate the conduct of a tiny navy (Ukrainian) confronting a robust navy supported by a well- defined strategy (Russian). Therefore, the purpose of this research was to dialectically confront the naval strategies of Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea from 2022 to 2024, aiming to draw conclusions about the relationship between the use of new technologies in defensive strategic posture by the weaker party and naval asymmetry. We also sought to verify the applicability of what was observed in the Black Sea to different geographical environments and other naval forces. The application of the dialectical method revealed how the Black Sea Fleet, a true non-nuclear deterrence force, was confronted and contained at its bases by the diminished Ukrainian navy. We found that the use of an asymmetric warfare mindset by the Ukrainians, combined with flexibility in the political leadership and the integration of technology and innovation, enabled the denial of force asymmetry. With this conclusion in hand, we applied these new concepts to the Brazilian reality and defined not only the desired deterrent fleet for the 21st century but also presented the seeds of a Joint Operational Concept for Defense of the Brazilian Eastern Front