A expansão da marinha chinesa em busca das águas azuis: uma análise sob a ótica de Mahan

Abstract

This dissertation investigates how Chinese naval strategy in the South China Sea between 2012 and 2024 incorporated, reinterpreted, or diverged from the classical theory of maritime power formulated by Alfred Thayer Mahan. The objective of the research is to examine the actions of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the region during this period, based on the introduction of new naval assets, strategic repositioning, and the consolidation of a continuous presence. The research design adopted was a comparison between theory and reality. The basic theory is based on the six elements of maritime power proposed by Mahan, used as an analytical framework for the decomposition and interpretation of the Chinese case. The work uses documentary analysis, bibliographic research, and case studies, with a specific focus on the strategic transformations that ocurred after the rise of Xi Jinping and the commissioning of the PLAN’s first aircraft carrier. The research showed that while elements such as the character of the government and the overcoming of geographical disadvantages through engineering are highly consistent with the theory, others, such as national character and population, are actively shaped by state action rather than stermming from a natural maritime vocation. Thus, the study finds that Mahanian doctrine, although adapted, has decisively influenced the structuring and performance of the PLAN, remaining na essential analytical tool for understanding China’s maritime rise in the 21 st century.