Reinterpretando a Jeune École: guerra híbrida e estratégia naval de desgaste no conflito Russo-Ucraniano

Abstract

This dissertation investigates whether Ukraine’s maritime strategy in the conflict with Russia (2022–2025), characterized by hybrid warfare operations in the Black Sea, shows significant parallels with the doctrine of the Jeune École, a 19th-century French school of naval thought. The research analyzes whether the use of technologies such as naval drones, long-range missiles, networked command and control, and artificial intelligence represents a break from or an update to the classical principles of the strategy of attrition. Through theoretical review, case study, and comparative analysis, the study concludes that Ukraine’s adaptive capacity reinterprets the asymmetric foundations traditionally associated with the strategy of the weak in the maritime domain, echoing the logic of the Jeune École under contemporary technological conditions. The use of light and autonomous platforms, combined with remote sensing and network coordination, enabled Ukraine to impose material, logistical, and psychological costs on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, forcing a strategic withdrawal. The analogy with the Jeune École is grounded in four elements: denial of sea use to a superior adversary, employment of swarming light platforms, informational saturation as a deterrent mechanism, and indirect economic impact as a coercive tool. Despite technological and contextual differences, the logic of attritional coercion resurfaces, now enhanced by digital connectivity and the flexible production of unmanned systems. The study also highlights the implications of this model for Brazilian naval strategy, particularly in terms of coastal denial, light force employment, and civil-military integration. It argues that the Jeune École, reinterpreted in light of contemporary hybrid warfare, offers a valuable theoretical framework for states seeking to offset naval inferiority through innovation, tactical creativity, and logistical resilience.