Segurança marítima na Amazônia Ocidental: uma análise das implicações da seca de 2024

Abstract

The Western Amazon represents a strategic region for Brazil, where river stability is one of the pillars for maintaining sovereignty. The historic drought of 2024, the most severe in a century, exposed a profound vulnerability of this system, revealing the stability of the river environment as a critical factor for Seapower and, consequently, for Maritime Security. This research analyzes the implications of this event for Maritime Security and its consequences for the Brazilian Navy. The methodology effectively employed was a causal study, aiming to explain the cause-and-effect relationship between the water crisis and maritime security. The case study of the 2024 drought was the method used to delimit the scope of the analysis and extract the necessary evidence from the qualitative analysis of a broad spectrum of sources. The data selection was meticulous and structured. Maritime doctrine and legislation established the conceptual foundations and the normative framework of the Brazilian Navy. Official documents measured the hydrological crisis and the State's responses. Finally, academic literature and press reports were essential for capturing current hydrological data and describing the socioeconomic and humanitarian impacts of the crisis. The analysis confirmed the hypothesis that the crisis had an asymmetrical impact on Maritime Security: the collapse of navigability conditions (Marine Safety) was the epicenter of the crisis and functioned as a catalyst that degraded the environment for protection against illicit activities (Maritime Security). It is concluded that environmental stability is inseparable from Maritime Security in the region, implying the need for the Brazilian Navy to integrate climate trend analysis as strategic intelligence into its planning to ensure sovereignty in a scenario redefined by these current challenges, which present different scenarios with each occurrence.