Tensões no mar do sul da China: a ascensão naval chinesa em face da hegemonia dos EUA no Indo-Pacífico

Abstract

The growing strategic rivalry between China and the United States in the South China Sea stands as the most significant and impactful phenomena in contemporary International Relations, shaping the configuration of the international system and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. This study analyzes Sino-American tensions through the theoretical lens of Realism, with emphasis on neorealism and key concepts such as balance of power, security dilemma, and the Thucydides Trap, in order to understand the structural factors driving competition between an established and a rising power. A qualitative approach is adopted, based on bibliographic and documentary research, examining China's rise, the maintenance of U.S. hegemony, and the strategic developments in the region, including the militarization of maritime routes and the reconfiguration of alliances. Particular attention is devoted to the impact of these transformations on the employment of Marine Corps forces, analyzing how the United States and China have adapted their amphibious capabilities in doctrinal, structural, and technological terms to operate in contested littoral environments. The findings indicate that this antagonism generates direct and indirect challenges for Brazil's Marine Operating Task Groups, requiring enhanced expeditionary projection, interoperability with partner forces, updated doctrines for A2/AD scenarios, and modernization of naval and amphibious assets to ensure the defense of the South Atlantic and the protection of national interests in an increasingly volatile strategic environment.