Guerra das Malvinas : reflexões e lições dos beligerantes para o preparo da MB

Abstract

alklands War: reflections and lessons from the belligerents for the preparedness of the Brazilian Navy The conflict between Argentina and the United Kingdom in the Falklands War highlighted the importance of coherence in naval preparedness strategies. This study compares the preparedness of the Argentine Navy (ARA) and the Royal Navy (RN) from the end of World War II to the beginning of the conflict, with the objective of extracting reflections and useful lessons for improving the preparedness strategy of the Brazilian Navy (MB). The study was based on Arthur Lykke's theoretical model, expanded by Harry Yarger through the inclusion of the risk variable, and aligned with the Navy’s Doctrinal Foundations. The methodology involved the assessment of the preparedness strategies of the ARA and RN, followed by a comparison based on the elements of the strategic tripod: ends, ways, and means. In the Argentine case, decision-making centralization, institutional improvisation, lack of joint planning, and overestimated assessments of available capabilities were observed. In contrast, the RN demonstrated greater political-strategic balance, supported by consolidated doctrine, prior planning, and efficient mobilization, even under budgetary constraints. Based on these reflections and lessons, a critical diagnosis of the MB’s strategic concept of preparedness was conducted, using the Maritime Defense Strategy (EDM) as reference for comparison with the cases considered. Institutional advances were identified, such as the definition of the Navy’s Strategic Objectives (OBE) and the structuring of lines of effort for preparedness. However, challenges remain in the practical prioritization of ends, in the articulation of ways, and in the consolidation of capabilities aligned with the OBE. Although the EDM recognizes risk as a relevant element, effective mitigation mechanisms are still lacking. The study proposes guidelines for improving the MB’s preparedness strategy, focusing on the prioritization of objectives; the continuity of planning cycles; and the preservation of qualified and expandable cores of critical capabilities. It was concluded that the adoption of an integrated, consistent, and scenario-driven strategy may enhance the coherence of the MB’s preparedness and strengthen its ability to respond to the challenges of the contemporary maritime environment.