Estratégia naval na era algorítmica: o impacto da inteligência artificial em armas autônomas letais sobre a estratégia e o equilíbrio do poder naval, a partir de 2020 até 2025

Abstract

This dissertation examines how the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) is reshaping naval strategy and the balance of maritime power from 2020 to 2025. Grounded in the classical pillars of Alfred Thayer Mahan and Julian Corbett, reinterpreted through Geoffrey Till’s contemporary synthesis, it analyzes the evolving dynamics between Sea Control and Sea Denial in the Russia-Ukraine War, using the Black Sea as a case study. Findings indicate that supremacy based on large platforms and absolute sea control is giving way to distributed lethality, operational decentralization, and algorithmic acceleration. The deployment of AI enabled uncrewed systems, such as naval drones and Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs), allowed Ukraine to execute effective asymmetric strategies, imposing significant costs on the Russian Fleet. Support from NATO and U.S. intelligence and naval diplomacy amplified these effects. The research shows that algorithmic warfare, driven by machine-speed decision cycles, reduces predictability and heightens escalation risks. In this environment, Sea Denial becomes a viable approach for non-hegemonic actors, while Sea Control grows harder to maintain. The study concludes that twenty-first-century naval power will hinge less on the size of fleets and more on the ability to integrate technology, innovative tactics, and multidomain networks. It recommends doctrinal adaptation, interdisciplinary research, and international cooperation centered on meaningful human control, ethical governance, and multinational interoperability. Strategic advantage will depend on a balanced combination of technological innovation, operational prudence, and diplomatic leadership.