O conjugado anfíbio diante de ambiguidades e ameaças: a guerra híbrida no mar do sul da China

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes the effectiveness of the Amphibious Task Force as an expeditionary structure in facing the challenges posed by hybrid warfare in the South China Sea, an environment marked by normative ambiguity, overlapping of coercive instruments by state and non-state actors, and saturation of both military and civilian presence. The research, based on the theory and reality method and supported by Chaos Theory as an interpretative framework, combines theoretical references with an analysis of practices adopted by China and the United States. The study shows that China structures its Amphibious Task Force as a tool of prolonged coercive presence, backed by domestic regulations and integration with paramilitary forces, whereas the United States employs light, distributed, and technologically integrated expeditionary forces, emphasizing flexibility and operational autonomy. The traditional configuration of the Amphibious Task Force faces significant limitations in these hybrid scenarios, where informational saturation and ambiguity of threats constrain its application. To achieve effectiveness in such contexts, greater doctrinal flexibility, interagency integration, and proficiency in informational and legal operations become essential. Although this dissertation does not directly analyze the Brazilian Navy’s Amphibious Task Force, the observed lessons contribute to reflections on enhancing its expeditionary readiness in increasingly contested and complex scenarios, such as those that may arise in the South Atlantic, thereby ensuring its deterrence, presence, and international legitimacy.