A política de offset no Brasil e seu impacto na base industrial de defesa: uma análise comparativa na América do Sul (1993-2019)

Abstract

This dissertation investigates whether the implementation of the offset policy in Brazil, formalized in 2002, had a measurable effect on exports of defense products. The central hypothesis is that the policy, by requiring counterparts for the transfer of technology and local content, generated effects on the productive capacity and external competitiveness of the Defense Industrial Base (BID), compared to neighboring countries in South America. The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining a detailed qualitative-comparative analysis with a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) econometric modeling. The qualitative analysis reveals disparities in regional approaches: the Brazilian model stands out for its centralized governance, robust legal framework, and strategic focus on direct offset. In contrast, countries such as Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru presented policies that were more fragmented, late or focused on indirect compensation, with less impact on industrial development. These qualitative differences are empirically validated by econometric analysis. The DiD model isolated a positive and statistically significant causal effect of the 2002 Brazilian policy on defense exports, demonstrating that Brazil's institutional characteristics translated into superior performance. The work contributes to the Technological Catch-up Theory, showing that the institutional design of the offset policy is essential to boost the reduction of the technological gap and the qualified insertion in the defense industry. The implications for public policies point out that the success of an offset policy does not lie in its mere existence, but in its design and execution. Despite the limitations related to data availability and sample size, this research offers a rigorous methodological model and opens the way for future investigations on technological spillovers and regional integration. Ultimately, the dissertation demonstrates that a well-designed defense industrial policy is a powerful tool for the State, capable of converting strategic dependencies into opportunities for innovation, capacity building and a more autonomous insertion in the international scenario.