Estratégias de negação no Atlântico Sul: limites e potencial da doutrina A2/AD na margem equatorial brasileira

Abstract

The Brazilian Equatorial Margin (Margem Equatorial Brasileira – MEB) has gained increasing strategic importance due to its significant energy potential, the variety of emerging threats, and its sensitive geographic position between the Caribbean, the Amazon River mouth, and areas of interest to extra-regional powers. In this context, it becomes imperative to understand how Brazil has structured its presence and defense posture in the region, particularly through the Brazilian Navy’s (Marinha do Brasil – MB) maritime strategy. This study aims to analyze whether the actions and initiatives undertaken by the MB in the MEB align with the theoretical framework of the Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy, originally designed as an asymmetric approach to deny the freedom of action of technologically superior adversaries. The research carries out a comparative analysis between key A2/AD concepts, as discussed by authors such as Tangredi, Vego, Till, and Colby, and the operational reality of the MB, based on available naval capabilities, identified threats, and ongoing programs. A qualitative methodology is adopted, focusing on doctrinal, institutional, and geopolitical aspects to assess the extent to which current efforts contribute to building an effective deterrence strategy tailored to Brazil’s specific conditions in the Equatorial Margin.