O contexto pré-guerra das Malvinas entre 1970 e 1982: uma investigação integrada e multinível do sistema internacional, da dinâmica intrabloco ocidental e das relações bilaterais entre Estados

Abstract

The Falklands War, which took place in 1982, cannot be understood merely as a territorial dispute between Argentina and the United Kingdom, but rather as the outcome of a broader international process rooted in the dynamics of the Cold War. This dissertation investigates the pre-war context from 1970 to 1982, aiming to identify the factors that contributed to the outbreak of the conflict through a multilevel approach that articulates three main dimensions: the international system under bipolar logic, the relations among Western bloc states, and the bilateral trajectory between Argentinians and Britons. The study is grounded in three central theoretical frameworks: Kenneth Waltz’s structural neorealism, which emphasizes the role of international structure and the distribution of capabilities; Stephen Walt’s balance of threat theory, which introduces the perceptual dimension into alliance formation; and Robert Putnam’s two-level games model, which connects domestic and international arenas in foreign policy decisions. The methodology is qualitative and explanatory, based on historical and documentary analysis. Each empirical chapter corresponds to a distinct level of analysis: the systemic level highlights the structural constraints of the bipolar order; the intra-bloc level reveals strategic tensions among Western allies, especially during the South Atlantic crisis; and the bilateral level examines the accumulation of diplomatic failures, domestic political constraints, and strategic perceptions between the two countries. The findings indicate that the war was not caused by isolated factors, but by the convergence of structural, alliance-based, and domestic dynamics—demonstrating the analytical value of the adopted theoretical frameworks for understanding international crisis scenarios.