O planejamento da guerra cibernética: riscos e oportunidades da computação quântica

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes cyber warfare planning within the context of the doctrines of the Brazilian Ministry of Defense, with emphasis on the integration of the cyber domain into the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of military employment. It starts from the observation that the increasing digitalization of military operations and the expansion of the attack surface make it essential to adopt robust defense measures in the cyber domain. In this context, it examines the doctrinal foundations guiding joint planning, the organizational structures, and the specific responsibilities related to the cyber environment, as well as the incorporation of command and control and intelligence capabilities into operations in this domain. The study advances to the analysis of quantum computing as a disruptive factor, highlighting its potential to compromise current cryptographic systems and alter the dynamics of information security. The research adopts a qualitative approach, based on national and international normative and doctrinal documents, as well as technical and scientific literature. The findings indicate that, although Brazilian military doctrine recognizes cyberspace as a strategic domain, there is still a need to expand the level of detail regarding quantum threats and to accelerate the adoption of countermeasures, such as post-quantum cryptography. It is therefore recommended to incorporate quantum threats into planning guidelines and to intensify joint exercises that address such scenarios, with the aim of strengthening response capabilities and enhancing the resilience of critical defense infrastructures.