Desenvolvimento de um sistema de predição da dispersão de agentes NBQR, baseado no manual ATP-45 da OTAN

Abstract

This study developed a predictive analysis system for the dispersion of chemical agents, based on NATO’s ATP-45 principles and adapted to urban scenarios. The system integrates traditional mathematical modeling and data science techniques to simulate and visualize geospatial risk areas according to meteorological and operational variables. Specific modules were implemented for persistent and non-persistent agents, considering factors such as atmospheric stability, wind speed and direction, and release mode (air detonation, surface detonation, and spray). The results showed that wind speed and atmospheric stability have a direct impact on the shape and extent of the contaminated area, emphasizing the importance of meteorological analysis in NBQR incident response. Furthermore, the interactive web-based platform (https://nbqr.onrender.com/) allows users to input parameters and automatically generate risk areas, serving as a decision-support tool for defense and civil protection operations. The study also highlights the potential for future integration with sensor networks and artificial intelligence models to improve prediction accuracy and responsiveness.